Ernie Mccrew
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 51
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 14y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Chepstow | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Lingfield | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |