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Gilleangirl

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 55

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 14y

#9

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seems to have been brought along with handicaps in mind but opening mark looks on the stiff side. Tongue strap on for 1st time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 09/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/1055 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS28/0254 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/044projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-07Southwell47th5th+2
2026-02-28Southwell58th7th+1
2025-10-09Newcastle55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1028/027/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/20255th20/10%50%+0.50
28/02/20268th66/10%0%0.00
07/04/20267th66/10%14%+0.14