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7

Gloriola

3yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 49

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 14y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Went a long way to confirming the improvement shown on previous start when third of 9 in minor event at Wolverhampton (8.6f) 30 days ago, racing closer to pace than ideal. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 07/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS7/0854 @ Beverley 24/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Leicester 09/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0946 @ Leicester 07/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 59 · 6f GS 134 · below its mark07/10/2025 · OR 59 par5 @ Nottingham 08/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m75y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 55 par8/045OR 556 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 50 · 1m142y Std 124 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 50 par16/066OR 506 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 50 · 1m142y Std 125 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 50 par7/076OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-07Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-06-16Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-04-26Wetherby65th5th0
2026-04-08Nottingham511th10th+1
2025-10-07Leicester614th14th0
2025-09-09Leicester48th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/087/1016/067/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20256th50/10%38%+0.38
24/08/20256th150/10%58%+0.58
09/09/20258th200/10%0%0.00
07/10/202514th33/10%0%0.00
08/04/202611th28/10%9%+0.09
26/04/20265th33/10%43%+0.43
16/06/20262nd66/10%89%+0.89
07/07/20263rd3/184%75%-0.09