Thomas Tallis

3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 45

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 14y

#8

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.5

Today: 6

Class gap: +1.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-02	Wolverhampton	6	7th	7th	0	3.0
2025-09-09	Leicester	4	11th	9th	+2	1.4
2025-08-16	Doncaster	3	7th	3rd	+3	6.6
2025-07-28	Southwell	5	8th	7th	+1	3.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 9

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength45%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/07/2025	8th	150/1	0%	0%	0.00
16/08/2025	7th	150/1	0%	0%	0.00
09/09/2025	11th	300/1	0%	0%	0.00
02/06/2026	7th	50/1	0%	45%	+0.45