10
Blue Celestial
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 62
Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kempton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |
| 26/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 92% | +0.86 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 58% | -0.10 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 89% | -0.03 |