1
Dream Illusion
4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 67
Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Yarmouth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 24/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/03/2026 | 8th | 9/5 | 91% | 13% | -0.78 |
| 05/04/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 15/05/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 8% | -0.34 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |