Filly Eilish
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 64
Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
79%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-11 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 100/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |