11
Gifts Differing
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 57
Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Yarmouth | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength12%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |