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5

Hauteluce

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 70

Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/11

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Beat subsequent winner when won a maiden over 9.5f on all-weather at Wolverhampton in June but no real progress when third of 5 in a novice at Nottingham 20 days ago, perhaps unsuited by firmish turf. Handicap debut back on all-weather and dropped in trip so she is one to take seriously.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 02/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m1y Std 1282/1254 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m1f104y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0644 @ Nottingham 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 70 · 1m2f50y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 70 par17/074OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Nottingham43rd2nd+1
2026-06-28Wolverhampton41st0th+1
2025-12-02Lingfield55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1228/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength4%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/12/20255th25/10%60%+0.60
28/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
17/07/20263rd10/1195%50%-0.45