3
Kartini
4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 65
Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y
#9
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-26 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Newcastle | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength1%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |