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Kiss Me My Love

4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 65

Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Unbeaten at Redcar and won apprentice event there 8 days ago in a field of 7, bouncing back from a lamentable York effort. Escapes a penalty for that success so needs taking seriously assuming the return to all-weather suits her as well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m142y Std 131 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 64 par20/035OR 644 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 62 · 1m13y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 62 par25/045OR 625 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 61 · 7f218y Goo 126 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Redcar 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 62 · 7f219y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 62 par18/055OR 625 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m Gd 130 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 65 · 7f213y GF 142 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 65 par9/076OR 654 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 65 · 7f192y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Redcar 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 65 · 7f219y Goo 133 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 65 par29/075OR 65projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Redcar51st1st0
2026-07-25York413th12th+1
2026-07-09Doncaster63rd4th−1
2026-06-03Ripon59th9th0
2026-05-18Redcar51st1st0
2026-05-02Thirsk52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/032/059/0729/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength69%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/202611th28/10%0%0.00
05/04/20264th40/10%40%+0.40
25/04/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
02/05/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05
18/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
03/06/20269th5/174%27%-0.46
09/07/20263rd3/184%67%-0.18
25/07/202613th22/10%14%+0.14
29/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32