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4

Ravishing Beauty

5yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 65

Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y

#6

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Carlisle in June and placed at Pontefract both starts since. Needs to prove she's as good on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 18/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 1m Goo 142 · beat its mark18/08/2025 · OR 65 par18/086OR 655 @ Carlisle 09/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 67 · 7f173y Sft 139 · beat its mark09/09/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Thirsk 15/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 67 · 7f218y Sft 138 · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 67 par15/095OR 675 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 67 · 1m5y Std 137 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Ripon 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 66 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 66 par25/045OR 665 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 65 · 7f218y Goo 125 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 7f173y Sft 135 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 62 par8/065OR 625 @ Pontefract 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m6y Goo 140 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m6y Goo 140 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 65 par17/076OR 65projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-17Pontefract63rd4th−1
2026-06-21Pontefract53rd3rd0
2026-06-08Carlisle51st1st0
2026-05-16Thirsk57th7th0
2026-04-25Ripon58th8th0
2025-10-14Newcastle53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0814/108/0617/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/08/20252nd18/581%88%+0.06
09/09/20252nd4/179%89%+0.10
15/09/20257th3/184%40%-0.44
14/10/20253rd5/287%60%-0.27
25/04/20268th16/116%22%+0.06
16/05/20267th25/10%45%+0.45
08/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
21/06/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
17/07/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19