9
Zermatt Star
3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 67
Southwell · Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap · 1m 14y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.9 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Hamilton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA73 | 10th | 13th | −2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Cork | ? | 11th | 15th | −3 |
| 2025-10-20 | Gowran Park | ? | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-09-16 | Punchestown | ? | 6th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength15%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 04/04/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 11/05/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 31% | -0.11 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |