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7

Vinery

2yo Gelding · 9-4

Southwell · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) · 1m 14y

#5

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Massaat gelding who left debut form behind when second of 9 in 6f seller at Leicester (good to firm) 33 days ago, running on. Significantly up in trip and more required on first run for yard after leaving David Evans.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 13013/0643 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS4/073projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Leicester32nd1st+1
2026-06-13Leicester46th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/064/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20266th33/10%29%+0.29
04/07/20262nd28/10%88%+0.88