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2

Cairdeas

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 17y

#10

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has a hit-and-miss profile but better judged on penultimate effort when second of 5 at Nottingham in June than when getting no run here last month. Lightly raced on all-weather but has run well on the surface before so isn't discounted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 03/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 77 · 7f GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2025 · OR 77 par3/074OR 774 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 76 · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 76 par4 @ Ripon 26/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2025 · OR 74 par26/084OR 744 @ Pontefract 25/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 73 · 6f GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 71 · 6f Std 133 · below its mark14/10/2025 · OR 71 par14/105OR 714 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 69 · 6f2y GS 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 70 · 6f Gd 130 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 70 par3/065OR 705 @ Nottingham 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 69 · 6f18y Goo 129 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 69 · 6f16y Std 129 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 69 par27/075OR 69projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Southwell512th12th0
2026-06-20Nottingham52nd2nd0
2026-06-03Ripon55th5th0
2026-05-16Doncaster42nd1st+1
2025-10-14Newcastle512th12th0
2025-09-25Pontefract46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0725/093/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength37%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/07/20258th5/174%36%-0.37
26/07/202512th40/10%27%+0.27
26/08/20254th18/15%73%+0.67
25/09/20256th14/126%62%+0.35
14/10/202512th5/174%15%-0.58
16/05/20262nd25/10%91%+0.91
03/06/20265th6/168%56%-0.13
20/06/20262nd18/581%75%-0.06
27/07/202612th9/153%0%-0.53