Hectic
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 67
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 17y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pontefract | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 84% | +0.84 |
| 04/06/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 15/06/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 09/05/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |