6
Moostar
4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 66
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 17y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 78% | +0.23 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 17% | -0.71 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 17/07/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 30% | -0.38 |