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9

Ottawa

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 63

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 17y

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over C&D wearing cheekpieces and tongue strap in December for Joseph Parr but hasn't fired since and now returns from nearly 6 months off starting out for a new yard with all equipment removed so looks best watched.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newmarket 15/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f GF 134 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 68 par15/085OR 686 @ Thirsk 15/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 65 · 6f Sft 138 · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Southwell 29/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 65 · 6f16y Std 136 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 65 par29/096OR 656 @ Kempton 15/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 65 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Chelmsford City 30/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 64 · 6f Std 136 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 64 par30/106OR 646 @ Southwell 18/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 62 · 6f16y Std 132 · beat its mark18/12/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 65 · 6f16y Std 133 · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 65 par13/016OR 656 @ Wolverhampton 26/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 65 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark26/01/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Lingfield 14/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 64 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 64 par14/025OR 64projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-14Lingfield55th5th0
2026-01-26Wolverhampton66th7th−1
2026-01-13Southwell68th9th−1
2025-12-18Southwell61st2nd−1
2025-10-30Chelmsford City66th7th−1
2025-10-15Kempton67th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0815/1013/0114/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength35%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20259th11/142%20%-0.22
15/09/20252nd20/10%91%+0.91
29/09/20253rd7/282%82%+0.00
15/10/20257th17/255%40%-0.15
30/10/20256th6/168%0%-0.68
18/12/20251st18/15%100%+0.95
13/01/20268th14/126%13%-0.14
26/01/20266th10/147%50%+0.03
14/02/20265th12/137%33%-0.04