10
Showtime Mahomes
7yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 63
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 17y
#6
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Newcastle | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Southwell | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-06 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength21%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 22/11/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 05/12/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 06/01/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 10/02/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 24/02/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |