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Ziggy's Condor

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 70

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 1) · 6f 17y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

62%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who was third of 8 in a handicap at Doncaster 5 days ago, just days after unseating rider at the start at Goodwood. Visor back on and can be competitive back at this venue.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 24/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 73 · 6f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 73 par24/014OR 734 @ Lingfield 07/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 75 · 6f1y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Kempton 18/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 75 · 6f Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/02/2026 · OR 75 par18/024OR 754 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 74 · 6f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Chelmsford City 26/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 75 · 6f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 75 par26/034OR 755 @ Newcastle 20/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 74 · 7f15y Std 134 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Yarmouth 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 73 · 7f3y Gd 134 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 73 par20/055OR 735 @ Doncaster 14/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 71 · 7f6y Goo 131 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 70 · 6f2y GF 137 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 70 par1/085OR 70projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Doncaster53rd3rd0
2026-07-29Goodwood4+1
2026-06-14Doncaster512th12th0
2026-05-20Yarmouth55th5th0
2026-04-20Newcastle54th4th0
2026-03-26Chelmsford City46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0112/0320/051/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength51%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/01/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
07/02/20267th9/276%14%-0.62
18/02/20267th10/147%45%-0.02
12/03/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
26/03/20266th9/153%38%-0.15
20/04/20264th11/271%77%+0.06
20/05/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
14/06/202612th10/147%0%-0.47
01/08/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08