Baba Reza
8yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 67
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 17y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-04 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Southwell | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-07 | Ayr | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 3rd | 16/5 | 83% | 60% | -0.23 |
| 31/05/2025 | 15th | 14/1 | 26% | 26% | 0.00 |
| 14/06/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 07/07/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 23/10/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 04/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |