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2

Dorney Lake

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 17y

#5

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly capitalised on his much-reduced mark at Doncaster (5.6f) last month and backed that up when second under a penalty at Pontefract next time. Can have his most recent run at York overlooked having had the worst of draw. Remains well treated and no surprise if bouncing back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 72 · 6f16y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 72 par2/044OR 724 @ Catterick 22/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 71 · 5f212y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 71 · 5f110y Goo 131 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 71 par26/045OR 714 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 68 · 5f217y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 66 · 6f Goo 126 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 66 par8/065OR 665 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 66 · 7f50y Sft 132 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 64 · 5f143y GF 151 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 64 par9/075OR 645 @ Pontefract 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 64 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 21 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 67 par24/074OR 67projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24York416th15th+1
2026-07-17Pontefract52nd2nd0
2026-07-09Doncaster51st1st0
2026-06-19Ayr57th7th0
2026-06-08Pontefract55th5th0
2026-05-25Redcar48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0425/059/0724/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength49%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/04/20263rd18/15%78%+0.73
22/04/20265th5/287%0%-0.87
26/04/20266th7/163%0%-0.63
25/05/20268th18/15%30%+0.25
08/06/20265th16/116%56%+0.40
19/06/20267th18/15%14%+0.09
09/07/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
17/07/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
24/07/202616th22/10%25%+0.25