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4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 63
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 17y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Southwell | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 23/07/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |