Fierce
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 67
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 17y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Southwell | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-18 | Newcastle | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 23% | -0.24 |
| 25/09/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 26/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 55% | -0.14 |