6
Jesse Luc
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 66
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 17y
#2
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 29/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 25/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 10/03/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |