7
Sarafina Mshairi
4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 64
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div 2) · 6f 17y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Chester | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/06/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 18/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 11% | -0.31 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |