5

Astro King

9yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 97

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y

#13

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Timeform

Commentary

Last success came in the Cambridgeshire in autumn 2023. Had been off the best part of 2 years (also had a breathing operation) prior to seasonal reappearance and it remains to be seen just how much ability he retains.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength52%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 15/07/2023 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 99 · 1m2f56y GS 127 · beat its mark15/07/2023 · OR 99 par15/072OR 992 @ York 26/08/2023 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 102 · 1m2f56y Goo 138 · beat its mark26/08/2023 · OR 102 par2 @ Newmarket 30/09/2023 · Pos 1st of 34 · OR 107 · 1m1f GF 138 · beat its mark30/09/2023 · OR 107 par30/092OR 1071 @ Newmarket 17/04/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 111 · 1m1f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2024 · OR 111 par1 @ Newmarket 03/05/2024 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 111 · 1m4f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2024 · OR 111 par3/051OR 1111 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2024 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 111 · 1m1f212y GF 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/06/2024 · OR 111 par2 @ York 13/07/2024 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR 111 · 1m2f56y GS 139 · below its mark13/07/2024 · OR 111 par13/072OR 1112 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 104 · 1m1f GF 137 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 104 par2 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 102 · 1m2f56y Gd 138 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 102 par12/062OR 102projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-12York214th14th0
2026-05-02Newmarket211th11th0
2024-07-13York212th12th0
2024-06-18Royal Ascot19th8th+1
2024-05-03Newmarket14th2nd+2
2024-04-17Newmarket12nd0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0717/0413/0712/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/07/20232nd50/10%94%+0.94
26/08/20231st10/382%100%+0.18
30/09/20231st20/10%100%+1.00
17/04/20242nd15/261%88%+0.27
03/05/20244th11/271%40%-0.31
18/06/20249th12/137%43%+0.06
13/07/202412th16/116%42%+0.26
02/05/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
12/06/202614th50/10%13%+0.13