3
El Burhan
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 99
Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Ayr | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Chester | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-05-08 | Chester | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 06/07/2024 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 01/08/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 87% | +0.01 |
| 08/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/06/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |