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4

French Duke

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 98

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Doubled his tally on first start for new yard at Meydan (1½m, good) in January having left Roger Varian. Disappointed on next 2 starts but got back on track when sixth of 9 in handicap at Ascot (1½m, good to firm) 13 days ago. Needs to back that up with the hood left off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2024 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 88 · 1m3f211y GF 122 · beat its mark20/06/2024 · OR 88 par20/062OR 882 @ Goodwood 31/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 88 · 1m3f218y Goo 131 · beat its mark31/07/2024 · OR 88 par2 @ Ascot 07/09/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 97 · 1m3f211y Sft 135 · beat its mark07/09/2024 · OR 97 par7/092OR 972 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 99 · 1m3f211y GF 132 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 99 par2 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 98 · 1m6f Goo 128 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 98 par2/082OR 982 @ York 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 97 · 1m3f188y Goo 130 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 97 parC0 @ Meydan 16/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m4f Gd 12816/01C?2 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 102 · 1m3f211y GF 135 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 102 par2 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m3f211y GF 142 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 100 par24/072OR 100projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Ascot26th6th0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot211th11th0
2026-01-16Meydan?1st1st0
2025-08-22York23rd3rd0
2025-08-02Goodwood210th10th0
2025-06-20Royal Ascot28th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0620/0616/0124/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength45%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20246th10/147%72%+0.25
31/07/20241st16/583%100%+0.17
07/09/20242nd4/179%88%+0.09
20/06/20258th4/179%59%-0.20
02/08/202510th6/168%31%-0.38
22/08/20253rd11/271%78%+0.07
16/01/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
19/06/202611th22/10%38%+0.38
24/07/20266th12/137%38%+0.01