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11

Jimmy Speaking

5yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 84

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y

#11

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has returned better than ever, justifying good support at Doncaster in March before following up despite doing plenty wrong round here the following month. Made the frame twice from 3 starts since, latest when fourth at Ripon (1m, good) 19 days ago. Got to prove stamina now significantly up in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Windsor 14/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 1m31y GF 128 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 79 par14/083OR 793 @ Southwell 28/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 80 · 1m13y Std 130 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 80 par3 @ Newmarket 26/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 80 · 1m1f GF 130 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 80 par26/093OR 804 @ Yarmouth 06/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 79 · 1m3y Gd 139 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 78 · 7f6y GS 133 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 78 par29/034OR 784 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 82 · 7f14y Std 137 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Newmarket 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 84 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 84 par16/054OR 842 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 84 · 1m113y Goo 122 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 84 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 84 par18/074OR 84projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Ripon44th6th−2
2026-06-05Epsom Downs29th9th0
2026-05-16Newmarket42nd4th−2
2026-04-30Southwell41st3rd−2
2026-03-29Doncaster41st3rd−2
2025-10-06Yarmouth410th12th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/086/1016/0518/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20253rd10/382%71%-0.11
28/08/20257th8/158%50%-0.08
26/09/202512th22/10%8%+0.08
06/10/202510th4/179%25%-0.54
29/03/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
30/04/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
16/05/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
05/06/20269th22/10%53%+0.53
18/07/20264th6/492%50%-0.42