8
Let's Dream
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 91
Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | York | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Chester | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Chester | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 14/06/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 11/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 13/09/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/06/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |