13
Per Contra
5yo Gelding · 8-2 · OR 80
Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y
#12
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 20th | 20th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | York | 2 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 15% | -0.27 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 12/04/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 15/05/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 25/06/2026 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 13% | -0.73 |
| 11/07/2026 | 20th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |