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10

Say What You See

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

68%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Steadily progressive course winner last year. Got back to winning ways on last 2 starts at Pontefract and York just 4 days apart in June, with a career best in first-time cheekpieces for the latter under a penalty. Needs another career best after a 6 lb rise in the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 29/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 68 · 1m4f10y Gd 126 · beat its mark29/07/2025 · OR 68 par29/074OR 684 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 68 · 1m2f42y Std 121 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 68 par4 @ Southwell 28/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 68 · 1m4f14y Std 118 · beat its mark28/08/2025 · OR 68 par28/084OR 684 @ Doncaster 14/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 73 · 1m2f43y Goo 131 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 73 par3 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 73 · 1m2f43y GS 116 · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 73 par29/033OR 734 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 75 · 1m4f104y Gd 130 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 75 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 75 par1/055OR 754 @ Pontefract 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 77 · 1m4f5y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 77 · 1m2f56y Gd 137 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 77 par12/064OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-12York41st3rd−2
2026-06-08Pontefract41st3rd−2
2026-05-01Newcastle52nd6th−3
2026-04-12Musselburgh45th7th−2
2026-03-29Doncaster33rd4th−1
2025-09-14Doncaster41st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0714/091/0512/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength86%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/07/20252nd7/282%67%-0.15
21/08/20252nd10/147%92%+0.45
28/08/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
14/09/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
29/03/20263rd10/382%82%-0.01
12/04/20265th7/282%69%-0.12
01/05/20262nd8/1196%91%-0.05
08/06/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
12/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16