7
Ultrasoul
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 93
Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-08 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-03 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-08-17 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-06-19 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2024-10-25 | Newbury | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2024 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 23/08/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 18/09/2024 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 89% | -0.06 |
| 25/10/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 19/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 17/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |