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Virtual Rock

7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 104

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 3f 24y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful listed winner on the Flat when trained by S. Kobayashi in France. Won novice hurdle at Uttoxeter from 2 starts for Robert Eddery when last seen in 2024. Probably best watched unless market speaks otherwise on handicap/yard debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Fontainebleau 28/03/2022 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m2f205y Gd 12828/03C5C5 @ Nantes 23/04/2022 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m3f204y Hvy 130C1 @ Chantilly 19/06/2022 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m3f204y GS 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/06C11 @ Deauville 15/08/2022 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m5f202y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ ParisLongchamp 01/09/2022 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m6f200y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS1/09C1C1 @ Saint-Cloud 18/03/2023 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f207y Ver 125 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ ParisLongchamp 16/04/2023 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m3f204y Hvy 125 · HIGHER CLASS16/04C14 @ Uttoxeter 09/07/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m7f168y Sft 1544 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 15626/074projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2024-07-26Uttoxeter41st3rd−2
2024-07-09Uttoxeter42nd4th−2
2023-04-16ParisLongchamp?1st0th+1
2023-03-18Saint-Cloud?6th4th+1
2022-09-01ParisLongchamp?3rd1st+1
2022-08-15Deauville14th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0315/0816/0426/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/03/20221st14/126%100%+0.74
23/04/20221st11/486%100%+0.14
19/06/20222nd18/15%86%+0.80
15/08/20224th9/276%63%-0.14
01/09/20223rd4/179%60%-0.19
18/03/20236th40/10%29%+0.29
16/04/20231st12/137%100%+0.63
09/07/20242nd6/168%88%+0.19
26/07/20241st6/492%100%+0.08