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10

Blackwaterfoot

5yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 60

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#12

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened account in handicap at Ffos Las (1¼m) last summer, but wasn't in the same form on his remaining 2 starts of the year. After 8 months off ahead of first run since leaving Paul Attwater, again finished down the field at Kempton (11f) in June.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 29/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS29/0854 @ Wolverhampton 11/02/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Southwell 20/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 1m13y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS20/0455 @ Chelmsford City 22/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m2f Std 151 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Ffos Las 16/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 60 · 1m2f Goo 140 · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 60 par16/076OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 20/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m1f104y Std 137 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 62 par6 @ Nottingham 23/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 62 · 1m2f50y Hvy 134 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 62 par23/106OR 626 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 61 · 1m2f219y Sta 131 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 61 par10/066OR 61projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-10Kempton611th11th0
2025-10-23Nottingham613th13th0
2025-09-20Wolverhampton68th8th0
2025-07-16Ffos Las61st1st0
2025-05-22Chelmsford City56th5th+1
2025-04-20Southwell57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0822/0523/1010/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20245th80/10%56%+0.56
11/02/20257th28/10%45%+0.45
20/04/20257th100/10%14%+0.14
22/05/20256th7/163%44%-0.19
16/07/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
20/09/20258th15/261%30%-0.31
23/10/202513th28/10%14%+0.14
10/06/202611th28/10%23%+0.23