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11

Distinction

8yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#8

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

3-time winner in 2025 who returned to form when a close third at Pontefract (1m) in May. Hasn't kicked on since, though hasn't had the race run to suit his hold-up style the last twice. Lurks on a dangerous mark, but might not get his preferred set-up here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newmarket 31/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m1f Gd 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 69 par31/105OR 695 @ Doncaster 28/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m2f43y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m6y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 65 par7/045OR 656 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · below its mark21/04/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 61 · 1m1f170y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 61 par17/055OR 615 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 61 · 1m6y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Pontefract 02/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 1m2f5y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 62 par2/065OR 625 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m2f219y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 60 · 1m1f104y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 60 par21/075OR 60projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Wolverhampton59th8th+1
2026-07-08Kempton55th4th+1
2026-06-02Pontefract56th5th+1
2026-05-22Pontefract53rd2nd+1
2026-05-17Ripon58th7th+1
2026-04-21Wolverhampton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/1021/042/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/10/202511th28/10%23%+0.23
28/03/202612th20/10%15%+0.15
07/04/20265th18/15%50%+0.45
21/04/20266th6/168%0%-0.68
17/05/20268th14/126%30%+0.04
22/05/20263rd28/10%78%+0.78
02/06/20266th6/168%29%-0.40
08/07/20265th18/15%33%+0.28
21/07/20269th40/10%33%+0.33