Junkyard Dog
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap · 1m 3f 24y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-03-31 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-16 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Newcastle | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Musselburgh | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 85% | -0.05 |
| 02/08/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 15/01/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 16/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 31/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |