Luan
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap · 1m 3f 24y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Leicester | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-08-28 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 28/08/2025 | 5th | 150/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 23/09/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/10/2025 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |