3
Battleground
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 69
Vaal · 4Racing Welcomes You Mr 90 Handicap · 1m 5f 203y
#4
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength68%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Turffontein | ? | 12th | 12th | +0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2026-04-21 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength10%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 58% | +0.00 |
| 21/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 04/06/2026 | 12th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |