5
Green Machine
4yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 76
Vaal · 4Racing Welcomes You Mr 90 Handicap · 1m 5f 203y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Vaal | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-31 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |