4
Sergeant Soqrat
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 58
Vaal · youcanbetonus! Mr 66 Handicap · 4f 214y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Vaal | ? | 11th | 11th | +0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Scottsville | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-06-25 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 14/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 62% | +0.19 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 02/07/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |