2
El Caney
8yo Gelding · 9-9
Vichy · Prix Du Parc Napoleon Iii Handicap · 1m 7f 199y
#5
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength35%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.2 /10 (raw 9.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 15th | 13th | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2026 | 15th | 14/1 | 26% | 7% | -0.20 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 31/03/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/04/2026 | 16th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/05/2026 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 15th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/06/2026 | 16th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |