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4

Decla

3yo Gelding · 8-13

Vichy · Prix Saint-pourcain-sur-sioule Stakes · 1m 1f 207y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pau 30/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 12830/01C5C5 @ Pau 20/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 12820/02C5C5 @ Saint-Cloud 05/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 1275/03C5C0 @ Saint-Cloud 03/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 1233/04C?C0 @ Tarbes 17/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 12717/04C?C5 @ Toulouse 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 12327/05C5C0 @ La Teste De Buch 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 11411/07C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11La Teste De Buch?5th5th0
2026-05-27Toulouse?2nd4th−2
2026-04-17Tarbes?6th6th0
2026-04-03Saint-Cloud?7th7th0
2026-03-05Saint-Cloud?2nd4th−2
2026-02-20Pau?6th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/013/0411/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength53%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20264th9/488%67%-0.21
20/02/20266th8/158%58%+0.00
05/03/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
03/04/20267th9/153%45%-0.07
17/04/20266th7/163%44%-0.19
27/05/20262nd6/492%88%-0.05
11/07/20265th7/163%50%-0.13