3
First Lady Star
3yo Filly · 9-1
Vichy · Prix Saint-pourcain-sur-sioule Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength2%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Compiegne | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Dieppe | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-09 | Argentan | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-25 | Pornichet | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/10/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 25/03/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 47% | -0.14 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |