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5

New Risk

3yo Colt · 9-4

Vichy · Prix De Durtol Handicap · 7f 209y

#6

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Lyon-Parilly 07/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1237/10C5C5 @ Lyon La Soie 07/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m208y Std 128C5 @ Lyon La Soie 14/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 1m208y Std 12814/02C5C5 @ Lyon-Parilly 15/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 128C0 @ Salon-De-Provence 16/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m208y GS 12416/04C?C0 @ Lyon-Parilly 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 124C0 @ Lyon-Parilly 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 13023/05C?C0 @ Lyon-Parilly 21/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f209y GS 13021/06C?projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Vichy30
2026-06-21Lyon-Parilly?6th6th0
2026-05-23Lyon-Parilly?10th10th0
2026-04-29Lyon-Parilly?1st1st0
2026-04-16Salon-De-Provence?4th4th0
2026-03-15Lyon-Parilly?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1015/0323/0521/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/10/20255th40/10%56%+0.56
07/12/20256th12/137%50%+0.13
14/02/20266th17/255%64%+0.09
15/03/20264th2/189%57%-0.32
16/04/20264th8/158%77%+0.19
29/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
23/05/202610th5/287%25%-0.62
21/06/20266th10/382%38%-0.45