2
Cervaro
7yo Gelding · 9-3
Vichy · Prix Des Proprietaires De Paray-le-fresil Handicap · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Marseille | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 21/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 08/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |