5
Crack City
6yo Gelding · 8-13
Vichy · Prix Des Proprietaires De Paray-le-fresil Handicap · 7f 209y
#7
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chantilly | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Marseille | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Chantilly | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength24%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 92% | +0.04 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.01 |
| 09/01/2026 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 82% | +0.27 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/03/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.30 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 08/04/2026 | 12th | 13/2 | 66% | 8% | -0.57 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |