11
Silver Schnok
9yo Mare · 8-4
Vichy · Prix Des Proprietaires De Paray-le-fresil Handicap · 7f 209y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 27/01/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 13/03/2026 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 7% | -0.09 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 27/04/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.68 |
| 19/06/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 21% | -0.15 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |