12
Tepito
4yo Gelding · 8-1
Vichy · Prix Des Proprietaires De Paray-le-fresil Handicap · 7f 209y
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vichy | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Moulins | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Lyon La Soie | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Lignieres | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Lyon La Soie | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/12/2025 | 6th | 125/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 16/02/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.02 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/03/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 02/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |